Report on The Aftermath of the German Elections and the Primary Opposition Elections in Hungary

The aftermath of the German Elections

Nearly one month has passed since the German Election and slowly but surely a preference for coalition has developed. As of now, a coalition formed by SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), Grüne (Greens) and FDP (Liberal Democratic Party) seems to be the most likely outcome.

After exploratory talks between the Greens and the Liberals, who are sort of the kingmakers this time around, more talks have been held between both parties and CDU (Christian Democratic Union), as well as with SPD. As a result of these, the abovementioned coalition seemed the most fruitful, to the point that they published some of the points the coalition wants to focus on, as well as points they have already reached consensus on. Starting on Thursday (October 21st), the official coalition talks will be held, which should lead to a final coalition agreement that will provide the country and Europe as a whole with a roadmap for the next four years. Although the coalition between SPD, Grüne and FDP is meant to happen, this has put the SPD in a particularly tough spot. As one of two majoritarian and more moderate parties together with the CDU, it was feared that an alliance with the Liberals and the Greens would lead to a significant loss in votes. Because of this, it is plausible and expected that the SPD will be the party that comes out of the first talks with some advantage.

They were, for example, able to push through against a proposed tempolimit for cars, set through no tax raises and no change to the current rule on public debt. The Greens could argue for a usage of 2% of the country for wind energy, a sort of must-use for solar panels on roofs, as well as a faster coal energy exit. The SPD could claim a new minimum wage of 12 Euros per hour, a minimum pension of 48% of their life-long earnings , as well as a change of the Hartz 4 system. Other points that did not reach consensus are setting the minimum voter age to 16, as well as the legalization of Marihuana. This last point thereby isn’t part of this first published paper, but the discussions and talks on the legalization of the substance have been flooding German media outlets.

Besides the lack of consensus in said matters, there are other conflicts that still await a resolution. Firstly, the prospective relations between Germany, Russia and China have not yet been discussed. This is of paramount importance and urgency, as the relations with said two countries are a priority in setting the country’s foreign policy, especially now with the opening of the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which has been disapproved by other actors such as the US. Also, the defensive spending has not yet been discussed. Regarding the topic of Eurobonds, the debt mutualization in the EU, is a point of conflict in the coalition as the Euro-skeptic FDP argues against it, while the Greens hold a rather open point of view.

The conversation is heated when discussing where the budget for all these reforms come from. Since the current tax rate should be kept intact, the question on how the projects should be financed is left open. Related to this, the dispute to gain control over the Ministry of Finance is also a source of conflict within the coalition, as it is of vital importance for both the FDP and the Greens. Finally, there seems to be some problems with keeping the already made promises on a bettering of the climate change actions. Overall, there are many issues left to be discussed, but at least some first conclusions have been reached, and most of Germany is expecting this coalition to become a reality in the near future.

As for Europe, member states are impatiently waiting for an official coalition formation in Germany, as well as expectant to the upcoming French elections. More specifically, the approaching French elections are of key importance to Germany, as both countries are the most powerful states in Europe. These two main European players are always cautious of what the other will do, as well as they try to cooperate as much as they can to each push their agendas. The media often uses the term “French-German couple” when it comes to European politics, which comes to further prove how these two are absolutely inseparable due to their power and leverage in the EU and the world.

Related to this, both France and Germany want strong cooperation, but France fears that some parties of the coalition might hinder some goals that Emmanuel Macron is pushing for, namely the European debt mutualization -that might be dismissed by the Eurosceptic FDP-, as well as the relaunching and development of nuclear power plants in France -which will might most definitely be opposed by the Greens. On top of everything, France is doubtful about whether Germany will still be able to compromise with Europe as Angela Merkel did if Olaf Scholz is elected as the Chancellor.

The Opposition Primary Elections in Hungary

Prime Minister Orbán and Fidesz have been in power for almost 12 years now, and the dissatisfaction of the people can be clearly observed in the results of these preliminary elections. The opposition parties have been trying to recover from the defeat in the 2018 elections, and for this they have come up with a solution to change the power of Orbán and his circle. Last year, 6 of the opposite parties realized they have the biggest chance against FIDESZ and Orbán in the upcoming elections if they form a coalition and go into the elections with one common candidate. Interestingly enough, coalitions in Hungary are decided prior to the elections, differently to Germany -as we have seen above-, where coalitions are formed once the elections have taken place.

 The 6 opposition parties agreed on forming a coalition, and agreed to hold primary elections to decide who will be the representative of the group against Orbán in the upcoming elections in 2022. The primary elections are not only to choose a candidate for prime minister, but also to elect the members of parliament. In the first round of the primary elections, the opposition candidates for parliament members were elected, and also two candidates for the prime minister title were eliminated from the competition. As none of the candidates did not accumulate a 50% of the votes in the first round, a second round was ordered.

Upon agreeing on the formation of a coalition, the parties signed and committed to follow in the upcoming elections a common declaration of values and a common program. Said common declaration of values includes, among others, an emphasis on the fight against climate change, and will keep climate issues as a central topic in their policies. Together with this, they committed to restoring the social peace and freedom of press, as well as effectively fighting against corruption. As of their common program, the main goal for the group is the restoration of Hungary into a free, healthy, and green European country.

In the first round, Dobrev – who is the wife of the former prime minister of Hungary, Gyurcsány – amassed 34.6 % of the votes, which meant she won the first round with Karácsony as the first runner up with 27.31% , and with Márki-Zay in the third place with a 20.43% of the total votes. After the first round, two of the candidates, Karácsony and Márki-Zay, stated their support of each other and agreed that one of them would step back in favor of the other as they believed only one of them could beat Orbán in the upcoming election. Furthermore, in order to win the opposition primary, only one of them should run in the second round against Dobrev, who they believed would not be able of winning against Orbán as she is the wife of Gyurcsány, towards whom there is common resentment towards as most people believe his wife’s presidency would mean the return of his policies. After days of negotiations, Karácsony stated he would not step down from his candidacy, but ultimately granted Márki-Zay his support.

To everyone’s surprise, the so-called unknown political figure, Márki-Zay, won the second round of these primary elections with 56.69% of the total votes, which meant a first and decisive victory for the opposition government.

All the while, we can highlight the actions of FIDESZ during these elections. During the campaign of the opposition primary election, FIDESZ started the so-called STOP Gyurcsány, STOP Karácsony petition. They aimed to weaken the whole institution of the primary election stating that the result of the pre election doesn’t matter as it is already predestined by Gyurcsány who’s puppet is Karácsony who will win. Based on the right wing media outlet Origo, the petition was already signed by over a million people which overachieved the popularity of the opposition primary election. Another interesting fact about the opposition primary election is the fact that FIDESZ itself spent approx. 1.5 more money on it than the whole opposition candidates together.

Regarding the European opinion on the current state of affairs in Hungary, we must first mention how member states all accross Europe have stood against Hungary for their anti-LGBT policies. These laws lead to conflict among the Ministers of European Affairs in each member state, and as a result fifteen heads of state wrote a letter to the Hungarian government opposing it. Though not all members opposed Orbán’s measures, among these we find Poland, Slovenia, as well as the more conciliatory Bulgaria and Latvia.

Specifically related to these past elections, many European states hold a very positive opinion of  Márki-Zay and believe he could be the candidate that overthrows Orbán. He is seen as a non-corrupt and non-dictatorial Orbán, which means that, while being a conservative, he is anti-corruption and pro-European. Together with this, he might also attract rural voters disappointed with Orbán, as well as leftists who desperately want to change Prime Ministers. In order to achieve a victory in the upcoming elections, the opposition will have to be very careful in its campaign because of FIDESZ’s control of mass media.